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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still